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Chapter 5. Technology Assessment Methodology

5.1. Introduction

67. To ensure that NATO and its member nations maintain the best use of technology it is important to distinguish between retiring, mandated and emerging technologies/standards. Once they are identified and their applicability analyzed, then informed decisions can be made on what role each technology or standard will play in the current technical architecture.

68. The rapid pace of technological change carries with it the potential benefits of faster and more cost-effective improvements in operational capability; however, the rapidity of change upon a broad technology front also makes the task of identifying emerging technologies particularly difficult.

69. The process of analyzing these emerging technologies will follow 3 steps. The first step is to filter the technologies down to those that are appropriate and applicable to NATO operations. The second step is identifying were in the technology's life cycle are we at the present time. The final step is to describe and forecast the emerging technology's impact on NATO operations.

5.1.1. Filter Criteria

70. The first step in the process of analyzing emerging technologies for NATO is to determine which technologies are relevant to NATO. In other words, we need way to sort through vastly different technologies and focus on only those that influences the answers to the following questions:

  • Does it relate to interoperability within NATO Systems?

  • Can it effect implementation of NATO CIS?

  • Can it effect implementation of NATO Net-Enabled Capability?

  • Does it relate to Nation-to-Nation Systems interoperability?

71. So for any given potential technology if we apply any of the above questions and the answer is yes, then that technology has passed the minimum threshold to be a candidate for consideration.

5.1.2. Grading Scale

72. By following 'The Rate of Adoption Theory'[4], we can track the dissemination of a technology over time with innovations going through a slow, gradual growth period, followed by dramatic and rapid growth, and then a gradual stabilization and finally a decline. This model can best track the state of technologies in the IT area of interest.

Phase Level Key Attributes
    Maturity Adoption Support
Emerging 1 Basic principles observed and reported; Concept and/or applications formulated. Embraced by early adopters willing to absorb high costs to take advantage of technology One organization or company controls technology development.
  2 Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof of concept. Embraced by early majority; Common in few NATO nations Multiple organizations control the technology's development. .
Mandated 3 Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory and relevant environment. Internationally widespread and mass market appeal; Common in most NATO nations Large community involved in the development and improvement of the technology.
Retiring 4 System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in relevant & operational environments. Embraced by the conservative late adopters; Still common, but other alternatives on the horizon. Many advocates, one rival
  5 Actual system completed and qualified through test and demonstration. Actual system proven through successful mission operations Better alternatives available. No advocates, many better alternatives

Table 5.1.  Key Attributes


5.1.2.1. Maturity Attribute

73. Technology maturity is a measure of the degree of readiness to which proposed critical technologies meets NATO's objectives. This assessment examines concepts, technology requirements, and demonstrated technology capabilities in order to determine technological maturity. In general,

  • Emerging technologies are at a low level of readiness.

  • Mandated and retiring technologies have a high level of readiness.

5.1.2.2. Adoption Attribute

74. The adaptation attribute deal with the question of how widespread is the use of a technology. The more ubiquitous a technology becomes, then the lower the costs are for that technology. High rates of adoption also reduce the likelihood of encountering interoperability problems.

5.1.2.3. Supportability Attribute

75. The supportability attribute is a measure of the number of organizations that endorse or supports a technology. More entities involved in developing and sustaining a technology translate into stability.



[4] Rogers, E.M. (1995). Diffusion of innovations (4th ed.). New York: The Free Press

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